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Today, I've received an invite to participate in the IT predictions for 2007. But first, lemme see how I did last year with my predictions for 2006. Agree, I'm not Nostradamus, but it was not bad at all.
Here's a quick review of what I've written back in December of 2005:
>1. Enterprises will finally start using Java 5.
This is about right. Java 6 will be out in December, and development managers are not too afraid of using Java 5 anymore.
>2. AJAX hype will calm down.
I was right. It starts to calm down. Still do not beleive me? Just read what the Editor-in-Chief of the AJAXWorld magazine writes in his blog .
>3. Fat clients will be more widely used in distributed enterprise applications .... Macromedia tools will become more and more popular.
I've got this one! Adobe purchased Macromedia, and their tools became popular.
>4. Smart development managers will start creating mixed open-source/commercial environments....
Hope so, but I do not have statistics to prove it.
>5. A new software architecture for small and mid-size businesses should arise... message-service bus...
I'm a bit ahead here, but it's clear that the architecture using the message service bus is getting more and more popular
>6. Programming will become a trade of a young generation. ...
What do you say? Am I right or am I right?
>7. A number of CIOs will come out of the closets and publicly admit that the real cost of the outsourced projects is high.
True.
>8. Yahoo will come up with some new innovative Web products that will be able to compete with Google's software...
Yahoo is slower than I thought, but let's give them another year.
>9. By the end of the year the broadband Internet will give DSL and cable Internet a run for the money.
Here in America,the adoption rate of the wireless Internet is slower than I thought...
>10. Java use will steadily increase despite the fact that various replacements are being offered.
Java is doing just fine..on the server where it belongs. Ruby did not make it.
In general, my predictions were not bad at all. I'll consider tarrot card reading as a plan B for my retirement.
Regarding #2. I think the hype is over from the perspective of a new AJAX
framework popping up each day or some new Web 2.0 flashy website. I think
AJAX matures actually -- you will see a number of stable and mature
frameworks in the market. More and more enterprise are looking at AJAX
today to make their Web applications more interactive.
